These Housing Markets Could Be Most at Risk in a Coronavirus-Fueled Recession By Clare Trapasso from realtor.com

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Just about everyone has been affected by the coronavirus pandemic—and the crisis, according to most experts, is only beginning to play out in many parts of the U.S. America now has the most confirmed COVID-19 cases in the world. And beyond the devastating human toll, an economic one is looming. The unemployment numbers are staggering, and the economy appears to be headed for a recession, if it's not already in one.
That's bound to affect just about every housing market in the country, some worse than others. But which are the most vulnerable? The realtor.com® data team found the counties that could be most at risk in the worsening financial crisis.

Tourism and vacation-home hot spots could be affected more than others, at least initially. These places that depend on visitors to frequent local hotels, restaurants, and attractions to keep their local economies afloat are starting to see big job losses. And when local economies suffer and people aren't working, housing markets hurt.

"The biggest initial coronavirus hit will be felt in the tourism and hospitality industries," says realtor.com Chief Economist Danielle Hale. These are the same places where folks tend to buy vacation homes.

"Second-home markets tend to be hit a bit harder in a recession. ... When people are cutting back, that's where they'll cut back," says Hale.

The luxury home market is also expected to feel the pain.

"Luxury buyers [typically] have a lot of their money in the stock market, and the stock market has taken a huge hit," says Ali Wolf, chief economist at Meyers Research, a national real estate consultancy. "They're saying, 'Let's wait. Let's ride this thing out.' Buying a luxury, new home right now is something that can wait."

Popular retiree destinations may also experience a slowdown. Older Americans, who are more vulnerable to the virus, are increasingly reluctant (or unable) to visit potential forever homes in warmer-weather states. Many of these retirees and soon-to-be retirees hail from the Northeast, the epicenter of the crisis, and the Midwest. And most already have homes, so moving to a retirement community or a sunny, new locale isn't urgent—it can be put off until the crisis has passed.

But real estate professionals are optimistic that these near-term vulnerable markets, like the rest of the nation, will likely bounce back once the virus is contained.

"Most housing markets in the country will take a significant short-term hit due to COVID-19," says Wolf. "[But] ultimately the housing market is going to come back."

To come up with our list, we looked at the counties with the highest percentage of workers in the industries that are most likely to be affected by this coronavirus-fueled crisis. These included a wide range of tourism, hospitality, retail, and other face-to-face fields, ranging from personal fitness, restaurant, and performing arts workers to those employed at car dealerships, casinos, and cruise lines. The data came from the 2017 County Business Patterns data compiled by the U.S. Census Bureau.

The manufacturing industry was not included in our analysis. We counted only the counties with at least 100,000 workers and included one county per state to add some geographic diversity to our list.




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